The Doklam Standoff

"The situation in 1962 was different and India of 2017 is different,"
                                                                                   
                                                           --- Indian Defense Minister Arun Jeitley

In June 18 2017, the Indian army moved into the Doklam area after the Chinese started construction of a road there. This started a two and a half month standoff between China and India. The event ended when India withdrew from the area unilaterally. With the Indian and Western media declaring India the winner in this event. 

I detest the idea that the two giant neighbors should go to war over a small patch of land. The Western media's interpretation of the event was so lopsided and divorced from reality that I wanted to bear witness to this event in my blog. If for nothing else, it is to provide an alternative account of what actually happened for the sake of posterity. 

Chronology

First, let me layout the sequence of events as best I can gather them.

• June 4 or earlier, China notified India that they will be expanding a road in Doklam (This was claimed by the Chinese authorities. The Indian side did not refute this. In fact, during the dispute, one Indian official sidestepped the question when asked if the Chinese provided advance notice for the road building).
• June 9, The Chinese again notified India of their intention to expand the existing road.
• June 16, Chinese road construction crew started working on road in Doklam.
• June 18, Indian troops, carrying weapons, armed with two bulldozers, crossed the Indian Chinese border and stopped the construction. Citing concern for the strategically vulnerable area of the chicken's neck.
• June 29, Bhutan protested to China about the construction of the road on disputed territory.
• June 30, Indian minister external affairs stated that by extending the road, China has changed the status quo in violation of a 2012 understanding.
• June 30, in answer regarding Bhutan's protest, China spokesman stated that the area of the road construction is totally under Chinese jurisdiction and ask India to withdraw its troops.
• July 5, China said they reached an understanding with Bhutan and there is no dispute with Bhutan about the territory.
• July 19, China again ask India to withdraw its troops. China also held live fire drill in Tibet.
• July 21, Sushma Swaraj, Indian External Affairs Minister, proposed that both sides withdraw their troops. She also stated that the world is with us on this. When asked which country, she named U.S., Japan and Australia.
• July 25, U.S. State Department said they should seek ways to resolve this peacefully, but did not side with either country. Similar statements were made by Nepal and Bhutan.
• July 27, Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advicer, attended a much anticipated BRICS meeting in China but failed to produce any diplomatic breakthrough.
• Aug 8, China officially rejected the proposal by Sushma Swaraj for mutual withdrawal and stated that the time for peaceful resolution is running out, that China's position is India must unilaterally withdraw from the area as a pre-condition for any negotiation. There has almost been daily tirades by the Chinese with the same message from this point on.
• Aug. 9, Chinese trains were spotted transporting military equipment to Tibet, where an armed incursion into India is expected to be launched.
• Aug. 15, Chinese and Indian troops clashed near Pangong lake. They fought with sticks and stones. Several injured from both sides.
• Aug. 16, China signed deals with Nepal for gas exploration.
• Aug. 24, Chinese missiles were spotted heading to the Tibet region.
• Aug. 24, China issue travel warning to Chinese going to India.
• Aug, 24, China was said to have signed $10 billion package with Bhutan.
• Aug. 24, Large Chinese military convoys were spotted heading to Tibet.
• Aug. 25, Chinese Navy held live fire drills off Indian Ocean.
• Aug. 28, India announced that China and India has mutually agreed to disengage and the Indian troops are in a process of moving out of the area. The Chinese confirmed that the Indian troops and equipment have already moved out, but countered that only the Indian troops have moved back to their side. The Chinese troops have not pulled out and are still patrolling the area. When asked if they will continue to build roads in the area, the Chinese side stated they are "taking into account various factors like weather, we will make proper building plans in light of actual situation".
• Aug. 30, Indian Defense Minister Arun Jeitley, when asked if Modi won in the standoff against China, said, "Given the sensitivity of the issue, there is no need to make multiple statements,". He also announce the government's decision to carry out major reforms in the Army to enhance its combat capability, but said that this is unrelated to Doklam.

It is pretty clear based on the sequence of events that

1. The Indian side started this whole thing. The Chinese were initially surprised by the intrusion.

2. While India picked the fight, the Chinese finished it. However the Indian press or the Western press spin the events, India unilaterally withdrew from the area without any significant concession from China. No mutual withdrawal, no promise not to build the road per Indian request.

3. During the entire event, India, in spite of claim by Sushma Swaraj that "all countries are with us", failed to get a single country to endorse its position. The U.S. did not side with India. Japan, after stating that both sides should return to the status quo, was pounded by the Chinese. After that, it quickly clarified that it was not taking the side of India. Even the traditional allies of India, like Nepal and Bhutan, have not publicly sided with India.

Why did India make this move?

I was puzzled by the move made by India. The purported reason about the chicken's neck did not make any sense. India has two hundred thousand troops in the area, besides, if the Chinese wanted to attack the area, it is indefensible militarily. The Chinese only had to cut off transportation, and two hundred thousand troops would quickly run out of everything, ammo, food. Unless if India was doing this because of Bhutan. A blogger from Bhutan alerted me to this possibility.

Bhutan, a tiny kingdom of 800,000, has been under the control of India. India directs all the infrastructure projects. India provided the national budget. In turn, India has directed Bhutan's interaction with other nations. Bhutan only has diplomatic relationship with two countries, highly unusual for a sovereign nation. When the interest of the Bhutanese kingdom conflicts with that of India's, India always chose to sacrifice Bhutan's national interest to serve India's. Out of all the countries that shares border with China, Bhutan and India were the only two countries that failed to settle the border dispute with the Chinese. Bhutan and China has been negotiating to finalize their border without success for many years. The reason was meddling from India. The Chinese made a very generous offer. Bhutan would get all the northern territories in dispute with China back, if they would cede the territories in the tri-junction that is in dispute with China. India nixed the deal. However, all is not well with the relationship between India and Bhutan. There were rumors that Bhutan was on the verge of breaking away from the grasp of India and pursue a more independent foreign policy. Since India has saddled Bhutan with a large amount of debt, breaking away from India would require some assistance from a country with financial means.

India chose the timing and the location of the escalation well. Due to the rugged terrain and India's numerical advantage in the region, escalation of the conflict by the Chinese would be difficult, costly and protracted. While the Chinese may prevail at the end, the cost and duration of the war may deter the Chinese from escalation. With the upcoming National Congress Meeting, the Chinese leadership may also be distracted and in no mood to fight. If the Chinese do fight the Indians in the area and win, this would give India an excuse to move their troops into Bhutan in the guise of "protecting Bhutan". It would allow India to do a military takeover of Bhutan, similar to how they took over Sikkim(who used to be an independent kingdom like Bhutan). Heads India wins, Tails China and Bhutan lose. In addition, come September or October, India would have an honorable way to retreat by claiming that the weather makes stationing troops in the area impractical.

Since Vietnam also made a similar move in the South China Sea at the same time that India initiated this incident, I believe that there is coordination, which would point to the U.S. as a participant in this behind the scenes.

Some observations

The Chinese, of course, did not play the game so neatly laid out by India. In my opinion, they did a masterful job in handling this event. Initially surprised by the intrusion, they kept quiet for about two weeks, enough time for them to game out all the moves and counter moves. They came out swinging after that. Their message was consistent; India illegally trespassed into Chinese territory, they must withdraw as a pre-condition for any negotiations. China has the following objectives coming out of this. First, they must deter India from ever doing this again, not just prevent this occurrence. Second, they wanted the international community, if not on China's side, at least also not on India side. Third, they did not want to give India a pretax to take over Bhutan like they did with Sikkim. Fourthly, they wanted to ratchet up the cost to India over a period of time, so as to allow India to choose the peaceful if humiliating path over war. Finally, they wanted to use this opportunity to pull all the Indian neighboring countries away from India, to create a more neutral buffer zone.

The Chinese, while willing to give India time to react to their moves, have demonstrated that they are ready to go to war. The location of incursion chosen by the Chinese is far away from Bhutan, in the Indo Chinese border near Pakistan. This area, with better terrain, allows the Chinese to quickly move their armor divisions into India. From there, they can escalate in all directions, and a short distance from New Delhi. If they move east, they will quickly cut off supply for the 200,000 men army in Eastern India. They could even use the Indian transportation system, like roads and rail, to supply their attack. While India has spent a great deal of money on their military, they are no match for the Chinese. China would quickly (within days) control the airspace with their formidable ground to air missiles and better and more numerous fighter jets. Without air cover, Indian ground troops would quickly disintegrate. Apparently, I am not the only one with this view. If you look at my time line, you will see that around Aug. 24th, the Chinese took a big step in military escalation and was ready to invade India. The next step would be a public count down. At that point, China may demand more than the pull back of troops by India. For example, China may demand that India get out of East India, which China also claims. This would dramatically raise the price for the Indian retreat and increase the humiliation. The U.S., before invading Iraq, made similar unreasonable demands on Saddam knowing full well that he cannot possibly comply. I believe this is the reason for the hasty retreat by Modi.

At the end, the Chinese achieve all their objectives. Even if the Chinese were to continue their road building (which I am certain that they will next year when the weather gets better), India would not dare return to the Doklam area again(or make any similar moves). No military occupation of Bhutan took place. Not a single country sided with India. Judging from all the financial deals that happened near the end of the standoff, both Bhutan and Nepal have already moved away from the grasp of India and closer to China, precisely the event that India was trying to prevent by initiating this incident. They did this without firing a single shot at India. In contrast, the Indian side seems to be reacting to the Chinese moves after China went on the offensive. It seems they were looking for a way out but were not able to find it. This speak badly of the Indian leadership, which didn't think through all the scenarios when they initiated this incident.

Predictions

The obvious prediction to make is for Bhutan to establish diplomatic relation with China followed by resolving their border issues. There are other ramifications. Despite the wild spins of the Western and Indian media about Modi winning this incident, India and the West have lost a battle against China. All the small countries involved in the South China Sea, especially Vietnam, would be less inclined to go against China after this incident. India had made a big deal about the Chinese losing the goodwill of the Indian population, I think the opposite is also true. If China decides to give up on India as a partner and play hardball against India, they have a lot of cards to play with. The Indian economic growth, which exceeded that of China's for a few short quarters, has sputtered to 5.7%. Even that number was propped up by government spending. Without government spending, it was down to 4%. Spending even more on military at this juncture, which I think is a likely outcome of this tussle, cannot be good for India. I think it is tacky to declare winner and loser after two giant nations almost went to war. Unlike all the Western Media, I would definitely not call India the winner in this incident.