I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep, I am afraid of an army of sheep led by a lion.
--- Alexander the Great
We in the West are skeptical of the power of the government. At least, that is the position of a significant portion of our citizens. However, when we look at all the third world countries that rose to be developed nations, not only were they a very small number, they all started with strong authoritarian rules. If we remove the nations that were part of Western Europe which participated in and benefited from the original industrial revolution led by England, and remove the resource countries like Saudi Arabia, we are left with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. All of these were ruled by strong authoritarian governments during their initial ascend. While Japan was nominally a democracy, the same party had ruled the country for fifty years. Taiwan was not a democracy until it was developed. Ironically, Taiwanese economic development stopped after it transitioned into a democracy. South Korea was run by strongmen during its initial development. Lee Kuan Yew ruled with an iron fist in Singapore. Even in Hong Kong, the locals simply did not get much of a say on how things were run. Until shortly before it was returned to China, Hong Kong was run by the British without much consultation of the locals.
This is not a coincidence. During the initial transition from a third world economy to a developed country, a strong government plays an important role.
Internally, a strong government is needed to provide infrastructure. A strong government is needed to maintain law and order. A strong government is needed to ensures a virtuous investment environment and a single accessible domestic market place. Gorbachev, with the Goldman Sachs advisers, failed to turn the Soviet economy around precisely because they did not strengthen the government. Privatization of the Soviet companies allowed the private individuals to loot the country without requiring these companies to maintain being viable and also shoulder social responsibility of the economic transition. While a fully developed economy is guided by competition, an economy in transition must be guided by a strong hand to overcome its internal contradictions and provide the public good needed for the economy to thrive. In this context, Western economic theories are inadequate to guide and explain the economy in transition. One simply cannot transplant a matured Western economic model to an economy in transition. Instead, experimentation, pragmatism and continue reforms are needed to transition the economy of a developing nation. A small government, as George W. Bush envisioned, is a luxury of the matured Western economy that a developing nation simply cannot afford.
Many people now blamed Bill Clinton for letting the Chinese into the WTO. This is easy to say in the rear view mirror. America, the strongest economic power after World War II, set up the liberal trading order not out of charity to the other nations, but out of the believe that such a system favors the American corporations. At the time of the Chinese entry into the WTO, it was fully expected that the American corporations, the lean, mean killing machines that they were, would crush the Chinese state own enterprises and occupy the high end of the value chain. The Chinese would be relegated to making textile, toys and shoes. The WTO and Most Favored Nation status that the Chinese got came with very strict strings attached. Out of the multitude of nations granted this status, only a handful of East Asian nations with the high IQ populations and strong governments made it past the mid income status. Given the decrepit state of the state own enterprises for China, that the Chinese can work within the confines of the strict terms set out for WTO entry and still beat the West was something that was not anticipated by Bill Clinton and the others in charge at the time. A strong Chinese government played a pivotal role in making the Chinese corporations competitive. By leveraging the Chinese market to trade for technology, by organizing and create companies with the critical mass to win against Western multinational behemoths and by taking the loss needed to climb the learning curve, the Chinese government had enabled the domestic companies to rise up and able to compete against the strongest from the West. By setting up barriers of outside companies until their industries are competitive, the government bought time for the domestic companies to get their acts together. Unlike their Soviet counterparts, the Chinese used the principle of the markets but did not copy the Western system wholesale. They pragmatically choose what works and took the gradual approach to their reforms. To a lesser extend, the Korean and the Japanese government did the same. To produce companies that are competitive, the Korean government actually told some of the less competitive Chaebols to exit certain businesses to make room for the more competitive Chaebols to take over, something that would be unthinkable for the United States or Europe.
The Chinese government did something else. They were able to maintain an independent foreign policy. This is hugely important for the economic and political revival of China. Something I will discuss in my next post.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Globalization And Rise of China's Economy, Part Two, Intellectual Elite
Two qualities are indispensable: first, an intellect that, even in the darkest hour, retains some glimmerings of the inner light which leads to truth; and second, the courage to follow this faint light wherever it may lead.
---Carl von Clausewitz
The reason the Western Pundits failed to provide a convincing explanation as to why the world failed to converge economically is because they had blinders on. There are things that seem very obvious but no one wanted to talk about them because they are politically incorrect or is offensive to certain countries or continents. I am sure I will have my own blinders and limitations, but hopefully, my blinders are different from the other Western Pundits such that a grain of truth could be uncovered. Here, I have listed the factors that made the United States such a economic power house, from the most important to the least.
1. Sizable and high quality Intellectual Elite.
2. A strong government
3. An independent foreign policy
4. The rule of law
5. A solid financial system
6. Social trust and cohesion
7. A strong education system
8. Industrious and driven population
9. Can do start up culture
In the next few posts, I will explore each of these topics. In this post, I would like to explore the first one. How does the size and quality of a country's intellectual elite impact its economy?
Of all the qualities of a nation, this one is hands down the most important for a country's economic development. Countries with enough bright people could overcome years of terrible indoctrination and bad government. Countries without an intellectual elite will fail to develop in spite of being endowed with good natural resources such as oil or having good government as a legacy of colonial rule. Yet, due to the politically correct Western Culture, This is the least appreciated factor of national development. I define intellectual elite as the portion of the population that has an IQ of over 130. In the United States, as is with the rest of the world, the intellectual elite runs virtually all the corporations, makes virtually all the discoveries and provide most of the driving force to push the boundary of our civilization forward. From the invention of the 30 year mortgage to the assembly line of Henry Ford to space travel, most of these have been achieved by our intellectual elite. Having an intellectual elite is the first prerequisite for economic development. Further, to sustain economic development, it is also important to have a large fraction of the population that are not quite but near our intellectual elite level. Any machine shop owner will tell you that having a couple of master machinists (IQ 120 or so) makes the entire crew much more productive.
When viewed in this light, many of the conundrums so puzzling to the Western pundits are no longer very mysterious. The Middle Income Trap, can now be considered as a sort of IQ ceiling. As we see that all the countries that made it past the mid income trap like Japan and South Korea belong to East Asian nations with 100+ average national IQ. The remainder of the third world countries that are stuck at the middle income level typically have a national average IQ in the eighties. Failure of globalization to make vast majority of the developing countries more economically advanced could at least be partially attributed to the lack of such an intellectual elite in these countries. African countries that failed to even make their first step in economic development have average national IQ in the seventies.
Due to the anti-elite streak in our culture, the United States have not taken much extra effort to develop our own intellectual elite in our primary education. Bright people are mostly left to find their own ways. Past high school, the United States has generally done a good job at recruiting the brightest to our best colleges, affirmative action not withstanding. As with the rest of the population, the good life has degraded the drive for our intellectual elite. There is the observation that compared to previous generation, the current crop of the students at our ivy league schools read fewer books and know less. However, we are able to attract the brightest people from the world over and are able to make very good use of their talent. The United States still provide the best opportunity in the Western World for bright people. Unencumbered by an ancient culture, we are open to learn from the best the world has to offer. We also have the most freedom and support for people pursuing ideas. When something of value is created, the creator gets to keep the fruits of his labor. As a result, bright people like Andy Grove come from world over to create world class corporations like Intel. They made the United States world's biggest power house in research and development. They also create new industries like drugs and the digital revolution that even most of the industrialized world failed to keep pace.
China, with 1.4 billion people with average 100+ IQ, has a large group of intellectual elite and near elite. They generally do a good job of filtering these intellectual elites into the best colleges based on their Gaokao score, which is a good proxy to their IQ. Unfortunately, the path to Gaokao was littered with the corpses of Chinese misspent youth. Youth driven with a singular purpose, to score the highest score during Gaokao. This produces good workers that can handle a lot of pressure, but lack initiative and the sense of wonder that allow that person to go down an unfamiliar path to blaze new trails. Today, the damage of this kind of unenlightened competition has done is still manageable, as China is still in a sort of catch up mode. Soon enough, we will see the limitation of this approach. As China moves from manufacturing to higher value added industries and more sophisticated research and development, they will need more people that can follow their own drum beats. As the Koreans and the Taiwanese have shown, one can get pretty far with this type of culture, but long before they reach parity with American level of productivity, they would run out of steam.
Like the United States, the smart fraction in China are put to good use. In spite of restrictions the government places on the internet and other media, the Chinese seems to be very up to date with what is happening in the world. They are still eager to learn from the best in the world. The brightest people are recruited to join the government. They ran the corporations, many of which are world class. They staffed the military industrial complex, which is rapidly catching up to the United States. They manned the increasingly sophisticated R & D activities, which are beginning to yield results.
On balance, I expect the Mainland Chinese to keep the juggernaut going for a lot further then the Taiwanese and the South Koreans. The biggest reason is the sheer size of the Chinese intellectual elite and the number of uber genius that is produced due to the size of the Chinese population. I will expand on this a bit more in an upcoming post about the Chinese start up culture.
Having a high IQ is a prerequisite but not the whole story. The Europeans have essentially the same people as Americans, but failed to converge to the same level of productivity. The Koreans and the Taiwanese have 100+ IQ but are stuck at even lower per capita GDP compared to their European counterpart. The Russians have a pretty high IQ, but failed to developed their economy beyond resource extraction and military. In the next few posts, we will explore other aspects that makes America such an economic power house.
---Carl von Clausewitz
The reason the Western Pundits failed to provide a convincing explanation as to why the world failed to converge economically is because they had blinders on. There are things that seem very obvious but no one wanted to talk about them because they are politically incorrect or is offensive to certain countries or continents. I am sure I will have my own blinders and limitations, but hopefully, my blinders are different from the other Western Pundits such that a grain of truth could be uncovered. Here, I have listed the factors that made the United States such a economic power house, from the most important to the least.
1. Sizable and high quality Intellectual Elite.
2. A strong government
3. An independent foreign policy
4. The rule of law
5. A solid financial system
6. Social trust and cohesion
7. A strong education system
8. Industrious and driven population
9. Can do start up culture
In the next few posts, I will explore each of these topics. In this post, I would like to explore the first one. How does the size and quality of a country's intellectual elite impact its economy?
Of all the qualities of a nation, this one is hands down the most important for a country's economic development. Countries with enough bright people could overcome years of terrible indoctrination and bad government. Countries without an intellectual elite will fail to develop in spite of being endowed with good natural resources such as oil or having good government as a legacy of colonial rule. Yet, due to the politically correct Western Culture, This is the least appreciated factor of national development. I define intellectual elite as the portion of the population that has an IQ of over 130. In the United States, as is with the rest of the world, the intellectual elite runs virtually all the corporations, makes virtually all the discoveries and provide most of the driving force to push the boundary of our civilization forward. From the invention of the 30 year mortgage to the assembly line of Henry Ford to space travel, most of these have been achieved by our intellectual elite. Having an intellectual elite is the first prerequisite for economic development. Further, to sustain economic development, it is also important to have a large fraction of the population that are not quite but near our intellectual elite level. Any machine shop owner will tell you that having a couple of master machinists (IQ 120 or so) makes the entire crew much more productive.
When viewed in this light, many of the conundrums so puzzling to the Western pundits are no longer very mysterious. The Middle Income Trap, can now be considered as a sort of IQ ceiling. As we see that all the countries that made it past the mid income trap like Japan and South Korea belong to East Asian nations with 100+ average national IQ. The remainder of the third world countries that are stuck at the middle income level typically have a national average IQ in the eighties. Failure of globalization to make vast majority of the developing countries more economically advanced could at least be partially attributed to the lack of such an intellectual elite in these countries. African countries that failed to even make their first step in economic development have average national IQ in the seventies.
Due to the anti-elite streak in our culture, the United States have not taken much extra effort to develop our own intellectual elite in our primary education. Bright people are mostly left to find their own ways. Past high school, the United States has generally done a good job at recruiting the brightest to our best colleges, affirmative action not withstanding. As with the rest of the population, the good life has degraded the drive for our intellectual elite. There is the observation that compared to previous generation, the current crop of the students at our ivy league schools read fewer books and know less. However, we are able to attract the brightest people from the world over and are able to make very good use of their talent. The United States still provide the best opportunity in the Western World for bright people. Unencumbered by an ancient culture, we are open to learn from the best the world has to offer. We also have the most freedom and support for people pursuing ideas. When something of value is created, the creator gets to keep the fruits of his labor. As a result, bright people like Andy Grove come from world over to create world class corporations like Intel. They made the United States world's biggest power house in research and development. They also create new industries like drugs and the digital revolution that even most of the industrialized world failed to keep pace.
China, with 1.4 billion people with average 100+ IQ, has a large group of intellectual elite and near elite. They generally do a good job of filtering these intellectual elites into the best colleges based on their Gaokao score, which is a good proxy to their IQ. Unfortunately, the path to Gaokao was littered with the corpses of Chinese misspent youth. Youth driven with a singular purpose, to score the highest score during Gaokao. This produces good workers that can handle a lot of pressure, but lack initiative and the sense of wonder that allow that person to go down an unfamiliar path to blaze new trails. Today, the damage of this kind of unenlightened competition has done is still manageable, as China is still in a sort of catch up mode. Soon enough, we will see the limitation of this approach. As China moves from manufacturing to higher value added industries and more sophisticated research and development, they will need more people that can follow their own drum beats. As the Koreans and the Taiwanese have shown, one can get pretty far with this type of culture, but long before they reach parity with American level of productivity, they would run out of steam.
Like the United States, the smart fraction in China are put to good use. In spite of restrictions the government places on the internet and other media, the Chinese seems to be very up to date with what is happening in the world. They are still eager to learn from the best in the world. The brightest people are recruited to join the government. They ran the corporations, many of which are world class. They staffed the military industrial complex, which is rapidly catching up to the United States. They manned the increasingly sophisticated R & D activities, which are beginning to yield results.
On balance, I expect the Mainland Chinese to keep the juggernaut going for a lot further then the Taiwanese and the South Koreans. The biggest reason is the sheer size of the Chinese intellectual elite and the number of uber genius that is produced due to the size of the Chinese population. I will expand on this a bit more in an upcoming post about the Chinese start up culture.
Having a high IQ is a prerequisite but not the whole story. The Europeans have essentially the same people as Americans, but failed to converge to the same level of productivity. The Koreans and the Taiwanese have 100+ IQ but are stuck at even lower per capita GDP compared to their European counterpart. The Russians have a pretty high IQ, but failed to developed their economy beyond resource extraction and military. In the next few posts, we will explore other aspects that makes America such an economic power house.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Globalization And Rise of China's Economy, Part One, What Went Wrong With Globalization
To rule a country of a thousand chariots, there must be reverent attention to business, and sincerity; economy in expenditure, and love for men; and the employment of the people at the proper seasons.
--- Confucius
A strong economy is a prerequisite for a country to achieve greatness. China certainly have come a long ways after Deng took over in the seventies. The question is, will they continue and how far would they go?
Regarding the future development of China's economy, there are two schools of thought. The optimists point to the big discrepancy between the per capita Chinese GDP and the West in general and United States in particular and say that there will be more convergence. The pessimists, exemplified by Peter Thiel, say that globalization has run its course and the Chinese will have a harder time converging with the West. Who is right?
To go down that rabbit hole, I would like to explore a different but related topic. Today, the U.S. GDP per capita is at $57000, one of the highest for any normal economy. By normal economy, I am excluding a few city states like Singapore and Luxembourg since their status as wealth heaven or as a port city/financial hub cannot be replicated by a normal country without this unique niche to exploit. What we are talking about here is economic development as opposed to pure economic growth. Economic development refers to the production of ever more sophisticated goods in increasing quantity. So the Saudis, after they discover oil, had a lot of economic growth, but very little economic development. There is no secret to how we achieve this level of GDP. All the practices of the United States are opened to all countries that wish to study and emulate it. Globalization was supposed to spread these best practices of the world from the developed world to the rest. So one would expect that the developing world to converge to the productivity and living standard of the leader, the United States.
The problem, to paraphrase Greg Cochran, is that this convergence did not bother to take the trouble of actually happening. In the developed world, all the major economies like France, Germany, Japan only achieve some 70% of the American per capita GDP after all these decades. In case you retort that they will catch up in the future, their GDP growth have lagged behind that of the United States for decades now and show no sign of catching up. The next tier down, the Koreans and the Taiwanese, are similarly stuck, but at a lower level. These are the lucky ones. You would think a country like Ethiopia, which produce $600 worth of GDP per capita on currency exchange bases, would be able to produce something of value. The knowledge to make, say, a bicycle, could be downloaded from the internet for free. Capital flows across the world to where money could be made, yet these countries failed to make the most basics of industrial goods long after the knowledge of the industrialization has spread to other parts of the globe.
There are many who come up with arguments for why this is the case, but no one has come up with a satisfactory explanation. Some argued that exports, such as the ones associated with the Four Tigers is what lead to economic development and growth. Indeed, for a desperately poor nation, exporting their labor is the first step in joining the world economic order. Many nations today like South Korea and Germany are still heavily reliant on export for their economy. On the other hand, there are many nations that, while at one point or another, relied on exports, have relatively small proportion of their economies as exports during most of their development. The U. S. is a case in point. we were never an export powerhouse before WWII. We shot up in the fifties as an export nation after Europe was exhausted from the war. Today, export is merely 13% of the U.S. economy. On this count, with exports accounting for only 19% of the economy, China is actually closer to the United States than to South Korea. The point is, export is not needed to sustain high economic development. Exports are nevertheless very crucial to the initial development of a nation that started out desperately poor. In the process of exploiting the cheap labor of the country, outsiders, motivated by profit, have brought in the latest technology and best practices. Indeed, this is how all the East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and China started their economic ascend.
Since various countries are stuck at different points in their economic development, we must conclude that it is not enough to just learn about the production of widgets, or even the best practices of corporations. To become as productive as the United States, a country must have other qualities that the United States possesses. In the next post, I will outline what I believe to be the most important factors contributing to the success of the United States. I will also compare how the Chinese stack up on these factors.
--- Confucius
A strong economy is a prerequisite for a country to achieve greatness. China certainly have come a long ways after Deng took over in the seventies. The question is, will they continue and how far would they go?
Regarding the future development of China's economy, there are two schools of thought. The optimists point to the big discrepancy between the per capita Chinese GDP and the West in general and United States in particular and say that there will be more convergence. The pessimists, exemplified by Peter Thiel, say that globalization has run its course and the Chinese will have a harder time converging with the West. Who is right?
To go down that rabbit hole, I would like to explore a different but related topic. Today, the U.S. GDP per capita is at $57000, one of the highest for any normal economy. By normal economy, I am excluding a few city states like Singapore and Luxembourg since their status as wealth heaven or as a port city/financial hub cannot be replicated by a normal country without this unique niche to exploit. What we are talking about here is economic development as opposed to pure economic growth. Economic development refers to the production of ever more sophisticated goods in increasing quantity. So the Saudis, after they discover oil, had a lot of economic growth, but very little economic development. There is no secret to how we achieve this level of GDP. All the practices of the United States are opened to all countries that wish to study and emulate it. Globalization was supposed to spread these best practices of the world from the developed world to the rest. So one would expect that the developing world to converge to the productivity and living standard of the leader, the United States.
The problem, to paraphrase Greg Cochran, is that this convergence did not bother to take the trouble of actually happening. In the developed world, all the major economies like France, Germany, Japan only achieve some 70% of the American per capita GDP after all these decades. In case you retort that they will catch up in the future, their GDP growth have lagged behind that of the United States for decades now and show no sign of catching up. The next tier down, the Koreans and the Taiwanese, are similarly stuck, but at a lower level. These are the lucky ones. You would think a country like Ethiopia, which produce $600 worth of GDP per capita on currency exchange bases, would be able to produce something of value. The knowledge to make, say, a bicycle, could be downloaded from the internet for free. Capital flows across the world to where money could be made, yet these countries failed to make the most basics of industrial goods long after the knowledge of the industrialization has spread to other parts of the globe.
There are many who come up with arguments for why this is the case, but no one has come up with a satisfactory explanation. Some argued that exports, such as the ones associated with the Four Tigers is what lead to economic development and growth. Indeed, for a desperately poor nation, exporting their labor is the first step in joining the world economic order. Many nations today like South Korea and Germany are still heavily reliant on export for their economy. On the other hand, there are many nations that, while at one point or another, relied on exports, have relatively small proportion of their economies as exports during most of their development. The U. S. is a case in point. we were never an export powerhouse before WWII. We shot up in the fifties as an export nation after Europe was exhausted from the war. Today, export is merely 13% of the U.S. economy. On this count, with exports accounting for only 19% of the economy, China is actually closer to the United States than to South Korea. The point is, export is not needed to sustain high economic development. Exports are nevertheless very crucial to the initial development of a nation that started out desperately poor. In the process of exploiting the cheap labor of the country, outsiders, motivated by profit, have brought in the latest technology and best practices. Indeed, this is how all the East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and China started their economic ascend.
Since various countries are stuck at different points in their economic development, we must conclude that it is not enough to just learn about the production of widgets, or even the best practices of corporations. To become as productive as the United States, a country must have other qualities that the United States possesses. In the next post, I will outline what I believe to be the most important factors contributing to the success of the United States. I will also compare how the Chinese stack up on these factors.
Monday, September 18, 2017
The Transformaton of the Chinese Government
"China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will move the world."
--- Napoleon Bonaparte
I still remember in the eighties, when the Japanese took over the auto and electronic industries. There was a sense of doom in the United States. Angry people smashed Japanese cars on TV, though the TV sets they watched were also made in Japan. If the auto industry, the iconic symbol of American post war industrial prowess, was taken by the Japanese, what else can't they take from us?
With the benefit of hindsight, it turned out the Japanese threat was much less menacing. This also spoke to the dominance of the White Anglo Saxon Protestant civilization. There has been three revolutions that had or will have a huge impact on recent human history, the Industrial Revolution, the Information Revolution, and the upcoming Artificial Intelligence Revolution. The WASP civilization gave birth to all three of these, along with other events such as the explosion of modern music. Everything that we do today, from double ledger accounting to space exploration, owed its origin at least partly to the WASP civilization. After losing the auto and electronic industries to Japan, the Americans simply invented new ones. Computers, internet, Artificial Intelligence, Genetic research, the list goes on. The Japanese, with their more rigid culture, simply were not a strong participant in any of these new ones. At the same time, they have lost virtually all of their electronic industry and part of their auto to the Koreans and Chinese. The Europeans, in the mean time, have gone on a steady relative decline compared to the United States after bouncing back from the devastation of World War II. Such is the power of this single tribe from a once insignificant part of the world, its contribution to humanity in recent history completely dwarfed the contribution from all other tribes combined. While some groups such as Europe and East Asia played catch up, they were not able to follow the lead of of the WASP tribe into new industries. They were the more fortunate ones. Vast majority of the world is still not able to catch up to the Industrial Revolution, still stuck in the dark ages.
Like other East Asian countries, the Chinese are playing catch up to the West. While the jury is still out that they will be able to catch up to the most prodigious tribe in the world, what they achieved thus far is nothing short of astonishing. We all are familiar with the story about the decades long double digit growth which lifted the largest number of humanity out of poverty, but that was just the beginning of the story. The classic economic theories says that after countries climb up the economic ladder, they do more and more sophisticated thing, not before. The Chinese, apparently, did not get the memo. In fact, while they struggle in some traditional technologies like making jet engines, they are quickly moving to the top tier of countries in all areas of emerging technology. In most cases, they are pulling away from the pack and sprinting towards the leading country, the United States. When the "rest of the pack" consists of Western Europe and Japan, this is no mean feat. The Japanese were not able to achieve this even after they became fully industrialized.
To put some perspective on things, when Deng Xiaoping visited the United States in 1979, China was so poor that a country with the population of over 900 million did not have enough U.S. currency to pay for the trip. Jimmy Carter, who was president at the time, had to ask some rich billionaire to help sponsor Deng's visit. Fast forward 48 years, how things have changed. We need only to look at one industry, the e-commerce industry, to see the speed in which they move. The e-commerce industry was founded by the United States. By the time the Chinese started building their version of the e-commerce industry, there were already a formidable line up of companies such as Yahoo and Amazon in the United States. Starting with nothing, the Chinese now are the only other country with a e-commerce industry that is comparable in size and scope as the United States. This also helps them lay the foundation for one of the emerging technologies, Artificial Intelligence.
What they have achieved in building up their military industrial complex is also quite miraculous. As late as the nineties, the Chinese military consists of hand me down 1950 era Soviet ware, which they were barely able to license produce. It was said at the time that the Russians can fly their fighter bombers, unescorted, all the way to Beijing, bomb it and return and the Chinese would not be able to do much about it. Today, their Type-52D and Type 55 destroyers rival the best the world has to offer, such as the U.S. Arleigh Burke class destroyers. They are able to build and field multiple aircraft carriers. China is the only other country besides the United States to field a homegrown fifth generation aircraft, the J-20. They have a whole family of missiles that will take out aircraft carrier strike groups. No other country, not even the United States, have this capability.
In the next few posts, I will be exploring the rise of China.
Sunday, September 10, 2017
The China Challenge
--- Napoleon Bonaparte
I still remember in the eighties, when the Japanese took over the auto and electronic industries. There was a sense of doom in the United States. Angry people smashed Japanese cars on TV, though the TV sets they watched were also made in Japan. If the auto industry, the iconic symbol of American post war industrial prowess, was taken by the Japanese, what else can't they take from us?
With the benefit of hindsight, it turned out the Japanese threat was much less menacing. This also spoke to the dominance of the White Anglo Saxon Protestant civilization. There has been three revolutions that had or will have a huge impact on recent human history, the Industrial Revolution, the Information Revolution, and the upcoming Artificial Intelligence Revolution. The WASP civilization gave birth to all three of these, along with other events such as the explosion of modern music. Everything that we do today, from double ledger accounting to space exploration, owed its origin at least partly to the WASP civilization. After losing the auto and electronic industries to Japan, the Americans simply invented new ones. Computers, internet, Artificial Intelligence, Genetic research, the list goes on. The Japanese, with their more rigid culture, simply were not a strong participant in any of these new ones. At the same time, they have lost virtually all of their electronic industry and part of their auto to the Koreans and Chinese. The Europeans, in the mean time, have gone on a steady relative decline compared to the United States after bouncing back from the devastation of World War II. Such is the power of this single tribe from a once insignificant part of the world, its contribution to humanity in recent history completely dwarfed the contribution from all other tribes combined. While some groups such as Europe and East Asia played catch up, they were not able to follow the lead of of the WASP tribe into new industries. They were the more fortunate ones. Vast majority of the world is still not able to catch up to the Industrial Revolution, still stuck in the dark ages.
Like other East Asian countries, the Chinese are playing catch up to the West. While the jury is still out that they will be able to catch up to the most prodigious tribe in the world, what they achieved thus far is nothing short of astonishing. We all are familiar with the story about the decades long double digit growth which lifted the largest number of humanity out of poverty, but that was just the beginning of the story. The classic economic theories says that after countries climb up the economic ladder, they do more and more sophisticated thing, not before. The Chinese, apparently, did not get the memo. In fact, while they struggle in some traditional technologies like making jet engines, they are quickly moving to the top tier of countries in all areas of emerging technology. In most cases, they are pulling away from the pack and sprinting towards the leading country, the United States. When the "rest of the pack" consists of Western Europe and Japan, this is no mean feat. The Japanese were not able to achieve this even after they became fully industrialized.
To put some perspective on things, when Deng Xiaoping visited the United States in 1979, China was so poor that a country with the population of over 900 million did not have enough U.S. currency to pay for the trip. Jimmy Carter, who was president at the time, had to ask some rich billionaire to help sponsor Deng's visit. Fast forward 48 years, how things have changed. We need only to look at one industry, the e-commerce industry, to see the speed in which they move. The e-commerce industry was founded by the United States. By the time the Chinese started building their version of the e-commerce industry, there were already a formidable line up of companies such as Yahoo and Amazon in the United States. Starting with nothing, the Chinese now are the only other country with a e-commerce industry that is comparable in size and scope as the United States. This also helps them lay the foundation for one of the emerging technologies, Artificial Intelligence.
What they have achieved in building up their military industrial complex is also quite miraculous. As late as the nineties, the Chinese military consists of hand me down 1950 era Soviet ware, which they were barely able to license produce. It was said at the time that the Russians can fly their fighter bombers, unescorted, all the way to Beijing, bomb it and return and the Chinese would not be able to do much about it. Today, their Type-52D and Type 55 destroyers rival the best the world has to offer, such as the U.S. Arleigh Burke class destroyers. They are able to build and field multiple aircraft carriers. China is the only other country besides the United States to field a homegrown fifth generation aircraft, the J-20. They have a whole family of missiles that will take out aircraft carrier strike groups. No other country, not even the United States, have this capability.
In the next few posts, I will be exploring the rise of China.
Sunday, September 3, 2017
The Doklam Standoff
"The situation in 1962 was different and India of 2017 is different,"
--- Indian Defense Minister Arun Jeitley
In June 18 2017, the Indian army moved into the Doklam area after the Chinese started construction of a road there. This started a two and a half month standoff between China and India. The event ended when India withdrew from the area unilaterally. With the Indian and Western media declaring India the winner in this event.
I detest the idea that the two giant neighbors should go to war over a small patch of land. The Western media's interpretation of the event was so lopsided and divorced from reality that I wanted to bear witness to this event in my blog. If for nothing else, it is to provide an alternative account of what actually happened for the sake of posterity.
Chronology
First, let me layout the sequence of events as best I can gather them.
1. The Indian side started this whole thing. The Chinese were initially surprised by the intrusion.
2. While India picked the fight, the Chinese finished it. However the Indian press or the Western press spin the events, India unilaterally withdrew from the area without any significant concession from China. No mutual withdrawal, no promise not to build the road per Indian request.
3. During the entire event, India, in spite of claim by Sushma Swaraj that "all countries are with us", failed to get a single country to endorse its position. The U.S. did not side with India. Japan, after stating that both sides should return to the status quo, was pounded by the Chinese. After that, it quickly clarified that it was not taking the side of India. Even the traditional allies of India, like Nepal and Bhutan, have not publicly sided with India.
Why did India make this move?
I was puzzled by the move made by India. The purported reason about the chicken's neck did not make any sense. India has two hundred thousand troops in the area, besides, if the Chinese wanted to attack the area, it is indefensible militarily. The Chinese only had to cut off transportation, and two hundred thousand troops would quickly run out of everything, ammo, food. Unless if India was doing this because of Bhutan. A blogger from Bhutan alerted me to this possibility.
Bhutan, a tiny kingdom of 800,000, has been under the control of India. India directs all the infrastructure projects. India provided the national budget. In turn, India has directed Bhutan's interaction with other nations. Bhutan only has diplomatic relationship with two countries, highly unusual for a sovereign nation. When the interest of the Bhutanese kingdom conflicts with that of India's, India always chose to sacrifice Bhutan's national interest to serve India's. Out of all the countries that shares border with China, Bhutan and India were the only two countries that failed to settle the border dispute with the Chinese. Bhutan and China has been negotiating to finalize their border without success for many years. The reason was meddling from India. The Chinese made a very generous offer. Bhutan would get all the northern territories in dispute with China back, if they would cede the territories in the tri-junction that is in dispute with China. India nixed the deal. However, all is not well with the relationship between India and Bhutan. There were rumors that Bhutan was on the verge of breaking away from the grasp of India and pursue a more independent foreign policy. Since India has saddled Bhutan with a large amount of debt, breaking away from India would require some assistance from a country with financial means.
India chose the timing and the location of the escalation well. Due to the rugged terrain and India's numerical advantage in the region, escalation of the conflict by the Chinese would be difficult, costly and protracted. While the Chinese may prevail at the end, the cost and duration of the war may deter the Chinese from escalation. With the upcoming National Congress Meeting, the Chinese leadership may also be distracted and in no mood to fight. If the Chinese do fight the Indians in the area and win, this would give India an excuse to move their troops into Bhutan in the guise of "protecting Bhutan". It would allow India to do a military takeover of Bhutan, similar to how they took over Sikkim(who used to be an independent kingdom like Bhutan). Heads India wins, Tails China and Bhutan lose. In addition, come September or October, India would have an honorable way to retreat by claiming that the weather makes stationing troops in the area impractical.
Since Vietnam also made a similar move in the South China Sea at the same time that India initiated this incident, I believe that there is coordination, which would point to the U.S. as a participant in this behind the scenes.
Some observations
The Chinese, of course, did not play the game so neatly laid out by India. In my opinion, they did a masterful job in handling this event. Initially surprised by the intrusion, they kept quiet for about two weeks, enough time for them to game out all the moves and counter moves. They came out swinging after that. Their message was consistent; India illegally trespassed into Chinese territory, they must withdraw as a pre-condition for any negotiations. China has the following objectives coming out of this. First, they must deter India from ever doing this again, not just prevent this occurrence. Second, they wanted the international community, if not on China's side, at least also not on India side. Third, they did not want to give India a pretax to take over Bhutan like they did with Sikkim. Fourthly, they wanted to ratchet up the cost to India over a period of time, so as to allow India to choose the peaceful if humiliating path over war. Finally, they wanted to use this opportunity to pull all the Indian neighboring countries away from India, to create a more neutral buffer zone.
The Chinese, while willing to give India time to react to their moves, have demonstrated that they are ready to go to war. The location of incursion chosen by the Chinese is far away from Bhutan, in the Indo Chinese border near Pakistan. This area, with better terrain, allows the Chinese to quickly move their armor divisions into India. From there, they can escalate in all directions, and a short distance from New Delhi. If they move east, they will quickly cut off supply for the 200,000 men army in Eastern India. They could even use the Indian transportation system, like roads and rail, to supply their attack. While India has spent a great deal of money on their military, they are no match for the Chinese. China would quickly (within days) control the airspace with their formidable ground to air missiles and better and more numerous fighter jets. Without air cover, Indian ground troops would quickly disintegrate. Apparently, I am not the only one with this view. If you look at my time line, you will see that around Aug. 24th, the Chinese took a big step in military escalation and was ready to invade India. The next step would be a public count down. At that point, China may demand more than the pull back of troops by India. For example, China may demand that India get out of East India, which China also claims. This would dramatically raise the price for the Indian retreat and increase the humiliation. The U.S., before invading Iraq, made similar unreasonable demands on Saddam knowing full well that he cannot possibly comply. I believe this is the reason for the hasty retreat by Modi.
At the end, the Chinese achieve all their objectives. Even if the Chinese were to continue their road building (which I am certain that they will next year when the weather gets better), India would not dare return to the Doklam area again(or make any similar moves). No military occupation of Bhutan took place. Not a single country sided with India. Judging from all the financial deals that happened near the end of the standoff, both Bhutan and Nepal have already moved away from the grasp of India and closer to China, precisely the event that India was trying to prevent by initiating this incident. They did this without firing a single shot at India. In contrast, the Indian side seems to be reacting to the Chinese moves after China went on the offensive. It seems they were looking for a way out but were not able to find it. This speak badly of the Indian leadership, which didn't think through all the scenarios when they initiated this incident.
--- Indian Defense Minister Arun Jeitley
In June 18 2017, the Indian army moved into the Doklam area after the Chinese started construction of a road there. This started a two and a half month standoff between China and India. The event ended when India withdrew from the area unilaterally. With the Indian and Western media declaring India the winner in this event.
I detest the idea that the two giant neighbors should go to war over a small patch of land. The Western media's interpretation of the event was so lopsided and divorced from reality that I wanted to bear witness to this event in my blog. If for nothing else, it is to provide an alternative account of what actually happened for the sake of posterity.
Chronology
First, let me layout the sequence of events as best I can gather them.
- June 4 or earlier, China notified India that they will be expanding a road in Doklam (This was claimed by the Chinese authorities. The Indian side did not refute this. In fact, during the dispute, one Indian official sidestepped the question when asked if the Chinese provided advance notice for the road building).
- June 9, The Chinese again notified India of their intention to expand the existing road.
- June 16, Chinese road construction crew started working on road in Doklam.
- June 18, Indian troops, carrying weapons, armed with two bulldozers, crossed the Indian Chinese border and stopped the construction. Citing concern for the strategically vulnerable area of the chicken's neck.
- June 29, Bhutan protested to China about the construction of the road on disputed territory.
- June 30, Indian minister external affairs stated that by extending the road, China has changed the status quo in violation of a 2012 understanding.
- June 30, in answer regarding Bhutan's protest, China spokesman stated that the area of the road construction is totally under Chinese jurisdiction and ask India to withdraw its troops.
- July 5, China said they reached an understanding with Bhutan and there is no dispute with Bhutan about the territory.
- July 19, China again ask India to withdraw its troops. China also held live fire drill in Tibet.
- July 21, Sushma Swaraj, Indian External Affairs Minister, proposed that both sides withdraw their troops. She also stated that the world is with us on this. When asked which country, she named U.S., Japan and Australia.
- July 25, U.S. State Department said they should seek ways to resolve this peacefully, but did not side with either country. Similar statements were made by Nepal and Bhutan.
- July 27, Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advicer, attended a much anticipated BRICS meeting in China but failed to produce any diplomatic breakthrough.
- Aug 8, China officially rejected the proposal by Sushma Swaraj for mutual withdrawal and stated that the time for peaceful resolution is running out, that China's position is India must unilaterally withdraw from the area as a pre-condition for any negotiation. There has almost been daily tirades by the Chinese with the same message from this point on.
- Aug. 9, Chinese trains were spotted transporting military equipment to Tibet, where an armed incursion into India is expected to be launched.
- Aug. 15, Chinese and Indian troops clashed near Pangong lake. They fought with sticks and stones. Several injured from both sides.
- Aug. 16, China signed deals with Nepal for gas exploration.
- Aug. 24, Chinese missiles were spotted heading to the Tibet region.
- Aug. 24, China issue travel warning to Chinese going to India.
- Aug, 24, China was said to have signed $10 billion package with Bhutan.
- Aug. 24, Large Chinese military convoys were spotted heading to Tibet.
- Aug. 25, Chinese Navy held live fire drills off Indian Ocean.
- Aug. 28, India announced that China and India has mutually agreed to disengage and the Indian troops are in a process of moving out of the area. The Chinese confirmed that the Indian troops and equipment have already moved out, but countered that only the Indian troops have moved back to their side. The Chinese troops have not pulled out and are still patrolling the area. When asked if they will continue to build roads in the area, the Chinese side stated they are "taking into account various factors like weather, we will make proper building plans in light of actual situation".
- Aug. 30, Indian Defense Minister Arun Jeitley, when asked if Modi won in the standoff against China, said, "Given the sensitivity of the issue, there is no need to make multiple statements,". He also announce the government's decision to carry out major reforms in the Army to enhance its combat capability, but said that this is unrelated to Doklam.
1. The Indian side started this whole thing. The Chinese were initially surprised by the intrusion.
2. While India picked the fight, the Chinese finished it. However the Indian press or the Western press spin the events, India unilaterally withdrew from the area without any significant concession from China. No mutual withdrawal, no promise not to build the road per Indian request.
3. During the entire event, India, in spite of claim by Sushma Swaraj that "all countries are with us", failed to get a single country to endorse its position. The U.S. did not side with India. Japan, after stating that both sides should return to the status quo, was pounded by the Chinese. After that, it quickly clarified that it was not taking the side of India. Even the traditional allies of India, like Nepal and Bhutan, have not publicly sided with India.
Why did India make this move?
I was puzzled by the move made by India. The purported reason about the chicken's neck did not make any sense. India has two hundred thousand troops in the area, besides, if the Chinese wanted to attack the area, it is indefensible militarily. The Chinese only had to cut off transportation, and two hundred thousand troops would quickly run out of everything, ammo, food. Unless if India was doing this because of Bhutan. A blogger from Bhutan alerted me to this possibility.
Bhutan, a tiny kingdom of 800,000, has been under the control of India. India directs all the infrastructure projects. India provided the national budget. In turn, India has directed Bhutan's interaction with other nations. Bhutan only has diplomatic relationship with two countries, highly unusual for a sovereign nation. When the interest of the Bhutanese kingdom conflicts with that of India's, India always chose to sacrifice Bhutan's national interest to serve India's. Out of all the countries that shares border with China, Bhutan and India were the only two countries that failed to settle the border dispute with the Chinese. Bhutan and China has been negotiating to finalize their border without success for many years. The reason was meddling from India. The Chinese made a very generous offer. Bhutan would get all the northern territories in dispute with China back, if they would cede the territories in the tri-junction that is in dispute with China. India nixed the deal. However, all is not well with the relationship between India and Bhutan. There were rumors that Bhutan was on the verge of breaking away from the grasp of India and pursue a more independent foreign policy. Since India has saddled Bhutan with a large amount of debt, breaking away from India would require some assistance from a country with financial means.
India chose the timing and the location of the escalation well. Due to the rugged terrain and India's numerical advantage in the region, escalation of the conflict by the Chinese would be difficult, costly and protracted. While the Chinese may prevail at the end, the cost and duration of the war may deter the Chinese from escalation. With the upcoming National Congress Meeting, the Chinese leadership may also be distracted and in no mood to fight. If the Chinese do fight the Indians in the area and win, this would give India an excuse to move their troops into Bhutan in the guise of "protecting Bhutan". It would allow India to do a military takeover of Bhutan, similar to how they took over Sikkim(who used to be an independent kingdom like Bhutan). Heads India wins, Tails China and Bhutan lose. In addition, come September or October, India would have an honorable way to retreat by claiming that the weather makes stationing troops in the area impractical.
Since Vietnam also made a similar move in the South China Sea at the same time that India initiated this incident, I believe that there is coordination, which would point to the U.S. as a participant in this behind the scenes.
Some observations
The Chinese, of course, did not play the game so neatly laid out by India. In my opinion, they did a masterful job in handling this event. Initially surprised by the intrusion, they kept quiet for about two weeks, enough time for them to game out all the moves and counter moves. They came out swinging after that. Their message was consistent; India illegally trespassed into Chinese territory, they must withdraw as a pre-condition for any negotiations. China has the following objectives coming out of this. First, they must deter India from ever doing this again, not just prevent this occurrence. Second, they wanted the international community, if not on China's side, at least also not on India side. Third, they did not want to give India a pretax to take over Bhutan like they did with Sikkim. Fourthly, they wanted to ratchet up the cost to India over a period of time, so as to allow India to choose the peaceful if humiliating path over war. Finally, they wanted to use this opportunity to pull all the Indian neighboring countries away from India, to create a more neutral buffer zone.
The Chinese, while willing to give India time to react to their moves, have demonstrated that they are ready to go to war. The location of incursion chosen by the Chinese is far away from Bhutan, in the Indo Chinese border near Pakistan. This area, with better terrain, allows the Chinese to quickly move their armor divisions into India. From there, they can escalate in all directions, and a short distance from New Delhi. If they move east, they will quickly cut off supply for the 200,000 men army in Eastern India. They could even use the Indian transportation system, like roads and rail, to supply their attack. While India has spent a great deal of money on their military, they are no match for the Chinese. China would quickly (within days) control the airspace with their formidable ground to air missiles and better and more numerous fighter jets. Without air cover, Indian ground troops would quickly disintegrate. Apparently, I am not the only one with this view. If you look at my time line, you will see that around Aug. 24th, the Chinese took a big step in military escalation and was ready to invade India. The next step would be a public count down. At that point, China may demand more than the pull back of troops by India. For example, China may demand that India get out of East India, which China also claims. This would dramatically raise the price for the Indian retreat and increase the humiliation. The U.S., before invading Iraq, made similar unreasonable demands on Saddam knowing full well that he cannot possibly comply. I believe this is the reason for the hasty retreat by Modi.
At the end, the Chinese achieve all their objectives. Even if the Chinese were to continue their road building (which I am certain that they will next year when the weather gets better), India would not dare return to the Doklam area again(or make any similar moves). No military occupation of Bhutan took place. Not a single country sided with India. Judging from all the financial deals that happened near the end of the standoff, both Bhutan and Nepal have already moved away from the grasp of India and closer to China, precisely the event that India was trying to prevent by initiating this incident. They did this without firing a single shot at India. In contrast, the Indian side seems to be reacting to the Chinese moves after China went on the offensive. It seems they were looking for a way out but were not able to find it. This speak badly of the Indian leadership, which didn't think through all the scenarios when they initiated this incident.
Predictions
The obvious prediction to make is for Bhutan to establish diplomatic relation with China followed by resolving their border issues. There are other ramifications. Despite the wild spins of the Western and Indian media about Modi winning this incident, India and the West have lost a battle against China. All the small countries involved in the South China Sea, especially Vietnam, would be less inclined to go against China after this incident. India had made a big deal about the Chinese losing the goodwill of the Indian population, I think the opposite is also true. If China decides to give up on India as a partner and play hardball against India, they have a lot of cards to play with. The Indian economic growth, which exceeded that of China's for a few short quarters, has sputtered to 5.7%. Even that number was propped up by government spending. Without government spending, it was down to 4%. Spending even more on military at this juncture, which I think is a likely outcome of this tussle, cannot be good for India. I think it is tacky to declare winner and loser after two giant nations almost went to war. Unlike all the Western Media, I would definitely not call India the winner in this incident.
Sunday, May 14, 2017
The Neanderthal School of Wizardry Part Two, Broad Outline
"Let a hundred flowers bloom"
---Mao Zedong
My daughter had a terrible math teacher this year. 25% of the time, she simply did not bother to show up for class. Since this is advanced math, it means that the rest of the time when she did show up to teach, she went very quickly. Yet no effort was made to assess if the class understood the material. The test went ahead, even in some cases where a concept was quickly taught just a day before. When she did not understand a theorem, my daughter resorted to typing the theorem on google and learning from the material she found online. In fact, that is a great way to learn new material. There are plenty of material online, like khan academy, that will teach you everything under the sun.
Imagine that the student is ready for the next lesson, she logs on, there are five different tracks on the same subject, all taught by some of the best teachers of the nation. In some cases, for those that are intellectually endowed, a few diagrams and some words of explanation gets the concept across. For most of us, a good lecture by the best teacher in the country makes the learning fun. Still for others, where perspiration is needed, the concept must be pounded in incrementally by breaking it down into several smaller segments and taught with examples and exercises. For each of these tracks, past students give comments and ratings. Having learned other subjects in the same system, the student would know which track generally works best for her. After getting the concept, the student does some exercises found for the track. Once she is confident that she mastered the subject, she takes the test on her own to see if she understand the subject. There is no need to cheat as she is alone, trying to check her own understanding of the subject. If she fails on some parts of it, the test sends her back to some other lectures that will explain those parts in greater detail. More exercises are done to help her understand the subject. She will take a different test to see if she understand the material. Once the student has a basic understanding of the subject ( as indicated by passing the test), she will consolidate her understanding of the subject by thinking about where the concept would breakdown. These are called the boundary conditions. After thinking about this on her own, she would then go to the next step where boundary conditions for the subject are explored. For 99.9% of the time, all the boundary conditions for the subject have already been thought of by others, these are posted and explored by her. for the rare case where she came up with a boundary condition that no one has thought of, she will post her thoughts on subject related forums. Others on the forum will try to help find a resolution to this new boundary condition. For those wishing to have a deeper understanding of this and related subject, there are pointers to other sites that help provide more reading for the related subject. If a student has a question about something, she can tap into the reservoir of Q & A related to the subject, all posed by past students and answered by other students and teachers. If she is unable to find the answer to her questions, she can even pose a question to a forum to ask. Students who learned the subject in the past will answer the question. These are added to the Q & A reservoirs.
What would be the role of the teacher in this system? If anyone ever dealt with kids, he would know that the natural inclination for a kid is to play. If you leave the kids alone, 0.001% of them would catch the learning bug on their own. The majority would be playing games with their iphone most of the time. Teachers in this school system will be there to provide advice, structure and direction. Teachers would organize the group interactions for the kids, including presentations, sports, and games. Teachers would make sure the kids stay on track. They would ensure that a kid who gets mental blockage or emotional issues gets addressed. They would encourage a kid with the intellect and curiosity to pursue extra-curriculum activity of her interest.
The first school that Neanderthal would run would be a boarding school. There are many reasons for this. The first reason is that boarding school minimizes the interference from the parents. In my observation, most of the parents, while well meaning, really ended up contributing negatively to their kid's well being by their meddling. A boarding school can help the kid build good habits and good interactions with others, especially nowadays where many kids don't even have cousins to play with. Being with a group of kids their age help them form bonds and interact with people. Finally, there are many tasks that is required of a boarding school, anything from laundry to cooking and cleaning to gardening to repairs. There are also administrative tasks such as budgeting, purchasing etc. These are tremendous opportunities for the kids to learn to contribute to the community. They learn leadership skills and integrity with the work they do at the boarding school. The students basically would take care of the school and themselves with the guidance of the teachers. It would also make it easy to learn organized sports and games since all the students are at the same place. Finally, older students would help out the young. This help them mature and be caring for others.
While the students are mostly learning subjects on their own, they would gather for reason other than attending classes. The gathering of the students would be much more about learning to interact with others and learn about cooperation and competition. After learning about a subject, a student would gather in small groups to present to each other about their newly discovered subject. They would gather to learn organized sports and play games designed to teach them about human interactions. They would put on shows for each other. For a student who did something really special, the reward would be for her to present to a larger audience her experience and findings. Students also come together to clean the school ground, the bathrooms, their own dorms. They would help cook for their fellow students and teachers. Of course, the teachers and the principle would be there along with the students at doing these tasks. When things break, the student would fix them while others learn from him. This is also a great opportunity to learn about the different subsystems of buildings and structures. Students would also be given some time during the week where they can just go play for fun.
To sum it up, students at the Neanderthal's boarding school would learn their material on their own. They would come together for activities that help students learn interactions with other students. They take care of each other and their school with the help of the teachers and principle.
---Mao Zedong
My daughter had a terrible math teacher this year. 25% of the time, she simply did not bother to show up for class. Since this is advanced math, it means that the rest of the time when she did show up to teach, she went very quickly. Yet no effort was made to assess if the class understood the material. The test went ahead, even in some cases where a concept was quickly taught just a day before. When she did not understand a theorem, my daughter resorted to typing the theorem on google and learning from the material she found online. In fact, that is a great way to learn new material. There are plenty of material online, like khan academy, that will teach you everything under the sun.
Imagine that the student is ready for the next lesson, she logs on, there are five different tracks on the same subject, all taught by some of the best teachers of the nation. In some cases, for those that are intellectually endowed, a few diagrams and some words of explanation gets the concept across. For most of us, a good lecture by the best teacher in the country makes the learning fun. Still for others, where perspiration is needed, the concept must be pounded in incrementally by breaking it down into several smaller segments and taught with examples and exercises. For each of these tracks, past students give comments and ratings. Having learned other subjects in the same system, the student would know which track generally works best for her. After getting the concept, the student does some exercises found for the track. Once she is confident that she mastered the subject, she takes the test on her own to see if she understand the subject. There is no need to cheat as she is alone, trying to check her own understanding of the subject. If she fails on some parts of it, the test sends her back to some other lectures that will explain those parts in greater detail. More exercises are done to help her understand the subject. She will take a different test to see if she understand the material. Once the student has a basic understanding of the subject ( as indicated by passing the test), she will consolidate her understanding of the subject by thinking about where the concept would breakdown. These are called the boundary conditions. After thinking about this on her own, she would then go to the next step where boundary conditions for the subject are explored. For 99.9% of the time, all the boundary conditions for the subject have already been thought of by others, these are posted and explored by her. for the rare case where she came up with a boundary condition that no one has thought of, she will post her thoughts on subject related forums. Others on the forum will try to help find a resolution to this new boundary condition. For those wishing to have a deeper understanding of this and related subject, there are pointers to other sites that help provide more reading for the related subject. If a student has a question about something, she can tap into the reservoir of Q & A related to the subject, all posed by past students and answered by other students and teachers. If she is unable to find the answer to her questions, she can even pose a question to a forum to ask. Students who learned the subject in the past will answer the question. These are added to the Q & A reservoirs.
What would be the role of the teacher in this system? If anyone ever dealt with kids, he would know that the natural inclination for a kid is to play. If you leave the kids alone, 0.001% of them would catch the learning bug on their own. The majority would be playing games with their iphone most of the time. Teachers in this school system will be there to provide advice, structure and direction. Teachers would organize the group interactions for the kids, including presentations, sports, and games. Teachers would make sure the kids stay on track. They would ensure that a kid who gets mental blockage or emotional issues gets addressed. They would encourage a kid with the intellect and curiosity to pursue extra-curriculum activity of her interest.
The first school that Neanderthal would run would be a boarding school. There are many reasons for this. The first reason is that boarding school minimizes the interference from the parents. In my observation, most of the parents, while well meaning, really ended up contributing negatively to their kid's well being by their meddling. A boarding school can help the kid build good habits and good interactions with others, especially nowadays where many kids don't even have cousins to play with. Being with a group of kids their age help them form bonds and interact with people. Finally, there are many tasks that is required of a boarding school, anything from laundry to cooking and cleaning to gardening to repairs. There are also administrative tasks such as budgeting, purchasing etc. These are tremendous opportunities for the kids to learn to contribute to the community. They learn leadership skills and integrity with the work they do at the boarding school. The students basically would take care of the school and themselves with the guidance of the teachers. It would also make it easy to learn organized sports and games since all the students are at the same place. Finally, older students would help out the young. This help them mature and be caring for others.
While the students are mostly learning subjects on their own, they would gather for reason other than attending classes. The gathering of the students would be much more about learning to interact with others and learn about cooperation and competition. After learning about a subject, a student would gather in small groups to present to each other about their newly discovered subject. They would gather to learn organized sports and play games designed to teach them about human interactions. They would put on shows for each other. For a student who did something really special, the reward would be for her to present to a larger audience her experience and findings. Students also come together to clean the school ground, the bathrooms, their own dorms. They would help cook for their fellow students and teachers. Of course, the teachers and the principle would be there along with the students at doing these tasks. When things break, the student would fix them while others learn from him. This is also a great opportunity to learn about the different subsystems of buildings and structures. Students would also be given some time during the week where they can just go play for fun.
To sum it up, students at the Neanderthal's boarding school would learn their material on their own. They would come together for activities that help students learn interactions with other students. They take care of each other and their school with the help of the teachers and principle.
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"The situation in 1962 was different and India of 2017 is different," ...
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"Taking, as He did, this sinful world as it is, not as I would have it;" ... -
In a world awash in debt, power shift to the creditors. ...